Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 51.07%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 25.12% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.66%) and 0-2 (8.51%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-0 (6.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.