Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 38.04%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.38%) and 2-0 (6.36%). The likeliest Lugano win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.
