SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.11%. A draw had a probability of 16% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 9.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.73%) and 3-0 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Chaves win it was 0-1 (3.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
74.11% ( -0.18) | 16% ( 0.1) | 9.89% ( 0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.38% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.53% ( -0.23) | 37.46% ( 0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.31% ( -0.25) | 59.69% ( 0.25) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.35% ( -0.1) | 8.65% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.18% ( -0.24) | 29.82% ( 0.24) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.05% ( -0.01) | 45.94% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.32% ( -0.01) | 81.68% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Chaves |
| 2-0 @ 11.9% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 7.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 4.62% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.19% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.37% Total : 74.1% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.86% Total : 16% | 0-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 1.72% Total : 9.89% |
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