Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 65.73%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 13.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.2%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.68%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (4.83%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
0.27) 
-0.16) 
