Given the stakes of the game for Vizela, we expect them to come out guns blazing in search of all three points to leapfrog Tondela into the relegation playoff spot. They take on an opposing side who will be playing only for pride having recently confirmed their survival. While we expect the visitors to put up a fight, we are tipping Moreirmse to come away with a slender win and complete a league double over the Vizelenses.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
0.43) 
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