SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
| 16 | Moreirense | 33 | -17 | 29 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | -26 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Estoril Praia | 33 | -9 | 36 |
| 14 | Vizela | 33 | -18 | 33 |
| 15 | Arouca | 33 | -22 | 31 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.96%). The likeliest Vizela win was 0-1 (8.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Moreirense | Draw | Vizela |
44.52% ( 0.43) | 26.05% ( -0.01) | 29.43% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 51.97% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.86% ( -0.15) | 52.14% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.14% ( -0.13) | 73.86% ( 0.13) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.67% ( 0.14) | 23.33% ( -0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.72% ( 0.21) | 57.28% ( -0.2) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.78% ( -0.39) | 32.22% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.29% ( -0.44) | 68.71% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Moreirense | Draw | Vizela |
| 1-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.59% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 1.99% Total : 44.51% | 1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.05% | 0-1 @ 8.51% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.68% Total : 29.43% |
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