SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 61.79%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 17.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.62%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (5.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
61.79% ( -0.02) | 21.13% ( 0) | 17.08% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 52.41% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.86% ( 0.01) | 44.14% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.48% ( 0) | 66.52% ( -0.01) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.25% ( -0.01) | 13.75% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 58.97% ( -0.01) | 41.02% ( 0.01) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.76% ( 0.02) | 39.24% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.05% ( 0.02) | 75.94% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 10.7% 2-0 @ 10.62% 2-1 @ 9.94% 3-0 @ 7.03% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.57% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.49% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.07% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.53% 5-0 @ 1.38% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0)Other @ 2.91% Total : 61.79% | 1-1 @ 10.01% 0-0 @ 5.39% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.65% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.13% | 0-1 @ 5.05% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.36% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.45% ( 0)Other @ 2.08% Total : 17.08% |
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