Pacos de Ferreira will head into the weekend with renewed belief following their resilient performance against first-placed Benfica. We predict that the Pacenses will take the positives from last week's performance and claim a slender victory over Vitoria de Guimaraes, who have failed to win any of their last three away games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 33.6% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.73%) and 0-2 (7.16%). The likeliest Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match.
-0.61) 
0.83) 
