Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belenenses win with a probability of 55.16%. A win for Machico had a probability of 22.87% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belenenses win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (8.31%). The likeliest Machico win was 1-2 (5.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Belenenses would win this match.
0.63) 
-0.4) 
