Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.65%. A win for Mirandela had a probability of 24.18% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (9%). The likeliest Mirandela win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.46%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.
0.05) 
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