SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 56.16%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 21.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.88%) and 0-2 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
21.04% ( 0.8) | 22.8% ( 0.27) | 56.16% ( -1.08) |
| Both teams to score 53.95% ( 0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.46% ( -0.14) | 45.54% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.13% ( -0.13) | 67.87% ( 0.13) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.25% ( 0.73) | 35.75% ( -0.73) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.48% ( 0.74) | 72.52% ( -0.75) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.97% ( -0.42) | 16.03% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.62% ( -0.77) | 45.38% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Braga |
| 1-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 5.55% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 1.9% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.07)Other @ 1.87% Total : 21.04% | 1-1 @ 10.79% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 10.49% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.88% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 9.6% ( -0.22)1-3 @ 6.03% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 5.86% ( -0.22)2-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 2.68% ( -0.14)2-4 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.01% ( -0.05)0-5 @ 0.98% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.35% Total : 56.16% |
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