Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Torreense win with a probability of 53.89%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for O Elvas had a probability of 20.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Torreense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.81%) and 1-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.91%), while for a O Elvas win it was 1-0 (7.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.14) 
