Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 66.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Paredes had a probability of 12.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (13.19%) and 1-2 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Paredes win it was 1-0 (5.03%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.
-0.1) 
0.22) 
