SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.82%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (7.13%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (8.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
32.41% ( 0.02) | 25.77% ( -0.25) | 41.82% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 54.22% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.15% ( 1.09) | 49.85% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.15% ( 0.97) | 71.85% ( -0.96) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.01% ( 0.56) | 29% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.11% ( 0.68) | 64.89% ( -0.68) |
| Moreirense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.36% ( 0.6) | 23.65% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.26% ( 0.86) | 57.74% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Moreirense |
| 1-0 @ 8.49% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 7.58% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.26% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 2.26% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0)4-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.57% Total : 32.41% | 1-1 @ 12.24% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.86% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 5.46% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.77% | 0-1 @ 9.89% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 8.83% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 7.13% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 4.24% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 3.43% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.1)1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.06)0-4 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.98% Total : 41.82% |
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