Even with many personnel changes, there is not much doubt that Porto will progress with ease, but a narrow scoreline could see Conceicao come in for more criticism.
Montalegre are unbeaten in their last six and have won their last two games, but they have next-to-no chance of pulling off one of the all-time shocks in Portuguese football here.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 90.78%. A draw had a probability of 6.5% and a win for Montalegre had a probability of 2.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.72%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Montalegre win it was 1-2 (0.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.01) 
