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Taca de Portugal | Fourth Round
Nov 24, 2023 at 8.45pm UK
Estadio Do Dragao

Porto
4 - 0
Montalegre

Loader (13'), Evanilson (18', 44'), Navarro (62')
FT(HT: 3-0)

Ngom (83'), David (89')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Saturday, November 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Montalegre 2-1 Pevidem
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal

We said: Porto 3-0 Montalegre

Even with many personnel changes, there is not much doubt that Porto will progress with ease, but a narrow scoreline could see Conceicao come in for more criticism. Montalegre are unbeaten in their last six and have won their last two games, but they have next-to-no chance of pulling off one of the all-time shocks in Portuguese football here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 90.78%. A draw had a probability of 6.5% and a win for Montalegre had a probability of 2.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (10.72%) and 2-0 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.05%), while for a Montalegre win it was 1-2 (0.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
PortoDrawMontalegre
90.78% (0.012 0.01) 6.55% (-0.0061 -0.01) 2.67% (-0.008 -0.01)
Both teams to score 43.21% (-0.051000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
79.72% (-0.01400000000001 -0.01)20.28% (0.012 0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
61.51% (-0.017000000000003 -0.02)38.49% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Porto Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
97.46% (-0.00099999999999056 -0)2.54% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
88.12% (-0.0010000000000048 -0)11.88% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
Montalegre Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.34% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)55.66% (0.051000000000002 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
11.73% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)88.27% (0.028999999999996 0.03)
Score Analysis
    Porto 90.77%
    Montalegre 2.67%
    Draw 6.55%
PortoDrawMontalegre
3-0 @ 11.67% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 10.72% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
2-0 @ 9.54% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
5-0 @ 7.87% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.84% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 6.28% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
2-1 @ 5.59% (-0.0040000000000004 -0)
1-0 @ 5.2% (0.0049999999999999 0)
6-0 @ 4.82% (0.0039999999999996 0)
5-1 @ 4.61% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
6-1 @ 2.82% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
7-0 @ 2.53% (0.0019999999999998 0)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.84% (-0.004 -0)
7-1 @ 1.48% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
5-2 @ 1.35% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
8-0 @ 1.16% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 4.44%
Total : 90.77%
1-1 @ 3.05% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
2-2 @ 1.64% (-0.004 -0)
0-0 @ 1.42% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 6.55%
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 2.67%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Guimaraes 1-2 Porto
Saturday, November 11 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Porto 2-0 Antwerp
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Porto 0-1 Estoril
Friday, November 3 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Vizela 0-2 Porto
Sunday, October 29 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga
Last Game: Antwerp 1-4 Porto
Wednesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Vilar de Perdizes 0-2 Porto
Friday, October 20 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal
Last Game: Montalegre 2-1 Pevidem
Sunday, October 22 at 3pm in Taca de Portugal


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