While Amarante have breezed through the opening three rounds, they have been handed arguably the toughest challenge in the fourth round and will look to show their mettle against the best side in the country. However, given the gulf in quality and depth between the two sides, we are backing Sporting Lisbon to run riot at the Estadio Jose Alvalade on Friday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 92.5%. A draw had a probability of 5.8% and a win for Amarante had a probability of 1.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (12.7%) and 2-0 (11.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (2.72%), while for an Amarante win it was 0-1 (0.76%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
0.56) 
-0.33) 
