Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.32%. A win for Manchester City had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.11%) and 2-0 (6.62%). The likeliest Manchester City win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
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