Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 62.65%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for 1e Dezembro had a probability of 15.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.42%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a 1e Dezembro win it was 0-1 (5.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tondela would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
