Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 57.52%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Torreense had a probability of 19.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.79%), while for a Torreense win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
