Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SC Farense win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 36.02% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SC Farense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (6.49%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (9.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for SC Farense in this match.
-0.09) 
0.12) 
