Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 51.23%. A win for Vila Mea had a probability of 24.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.82%). The likeliest Vila Mea win was 1-0 (6.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Estrela Amadora in this match.
0.09) 
-0.11) 
