Having already suffered two surprise defeats during the opening weeks of the season, Braga are under pressure to deliver in this match. While we feel that the home side will push them all the way, the superior attacking quality of the visitors may eventually shine through during the closing stages.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 60.5%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 17.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.39%) and 1-2 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.2%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (5.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.
-0.01) 
0.02) 
