Estrela Amadora have endured a rough start to the season and will need to show their mettle this weekend as they look to get their season back on track. Despite Casa Pia's struggles at home, they boast the firepower needed to get this one over the line, and we are backing them to pick up a narrow victory this weekend.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.35%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.31%), while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.2) 
