Spain certainly start favourites, given their pedigree and recent form. However, Ukraine are no pushovers, having scored in each of their last 19 matches, losing on just two occasions.
Both teams are strong in the final third, so several goals may be traded - with an extra 30 minutes potentially required to separate them.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-21s win with a probability of 69.39%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Ukraine Under-21s had a probability of 11.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-21s win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.57%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.87%), while for a Ukraine Under-21s win it was 0-1 (4.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain Under-21s would win this match.
