Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mariupol win with a probability of 44.33%. A win for FC Lviv had a probability of 29.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mariupol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (7.98%). The likeliest FC Lviv win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mariupol would win this match.