Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Olimpik Donetsk win with a probability of 42.05%. A win for Mariupol had a probability of 31.96% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Olimpik Donetsk win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (7.29%). The likeliest Mariupol win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.