Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 45.62%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 25.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.5%) and 1-2 (8.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13%), while for a La Luz win it was 1-0 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montevideo Wanderers would win this match.
-1.2) 
1.57) 
