SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 47.86%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 24.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.79%) and 1-2 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (9.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
24.42% ( 0.11) | 27.71% ( -0.28) | 47.86% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 43.74% ( 0.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.02% ( 0.98) | 60.97% ( -0.98) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.02% ( 0.73) | 80.97% ( -0.73) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.8% ( 0.66) | 41.19% ( -0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.27% ( 0.58) | 77.73% ( -0.58) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.37% ( 0.53) | 25.62% ( -0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.49% ( 0.72) | 60.51% ( -0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 9.36% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 5.65% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 4.15% ( -0)3-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 1.23% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.14% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.23% Total : 24.42% | 1-1 @ 12.74% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.55% ( -0.39)2-2 @ 3.85% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.7% | 0-1 @ 14.37% ( -0.31) 0-2 @ 9.79% ( -0.06)1-2 @ 8.68% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 4.44% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 3.94% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.08)0-4 @ 1.51% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.34% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.05% Total : 47.86% |
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