Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rentistas win with a probability of 35.55%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 35.29% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rentistas win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.38%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 0-1 (12.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rentistas would win this match.