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Serie A | Gameweek 36
May 8, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Verona
ML

Hellas Verona
1 - 3
AC Milan

Faraoni (38')
Faraoni (45+1'), Ilic (70')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Tonali (45+3', 50'), Florenzi (86')
Leao (45+1')

Preview: Hellas Verona vs. AC Milan - prediction, team news, lineups

:Headline: Preview: Hellas Verona vs. AC Milan - prediction, team news, lineups:
Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Hellas Verona and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
Sports Mole

As the Scudetto contest boils down to an absorbing battle between two Milanese rivals, AC Milan have the chance to reclaim first place on Sunday evening, when they visit Hellas Verona.

After Inter went a point clear at the top with victory on Friday, the Rossoneri - seeking a first Serie A title in over a decade - can assume the summit before the last two games with at least a draw at Stadio Bentegodi.


Match preview

Having watched on as defending champions Inter fought back from two goals down to beat Empoli, Milan are now intent on regaining the initiative by winning their penultimate away game of an eventful campaign.

With a 19th national title theirs to lose with just three games left to play, the Rossoneri have not been crowned champions for 11 years, so the pressure on a relatively young squad's shoulders is intense.

Stefano Pioli's side followed a stoppage-time victory over Lazio with last week's late Rafael Leao winner against Fiorentina to stay on track for the title, and the Portuguese winger's 82nd-minute strike at San Siro brought a collective sigh of relief from the club's long-suffering fans.

Another win on Sunday would effectively see Milan three points to the good, due to a superior head-to-head league record against their Nerazzurro rivals, who knocked them out of the Coppa Italia in last month's semi-finals.

If they are to hang on over the closing weeks, it may well be a rock-solid defence which gets them over the line. Conceding just eight goals in 15 league games since the turn of the year - including clean sheets in each of their last four home fixtures in Serie A - has helped Pioli's men inch ever closer to Calcio's ultimate prize.

Indeed, only Champions League finalists Liverpool currently boast a longer unbeaten run than Milan throughout the top five European leagues, and a total of 13 games without defeat sees the Rossoneri sitting on 77 points so far.

The last time they accumulated at least that many after 35 Serie A matches was back in 2011 - the season of their last Scudetto.

Having lost their last two home games against Milan, Verona also squandered a two-goal lead in October's reverse fixture - losing 3-2 at San Siro - so their recent record in this fixture is far from positive.

Nonetheless, the Scaligeri will again aim to win successive Serie A matches for the first time since January this weekend, following last week's defeat of Cagliari; they have yet to repeat the same result in the past 13 league games, making them Calcio's kings of inconsistency.

The three points earned by first-half goals from productive pair Antonin Barak and Gianluca Caprari keeps the Veneto outfit safely inside the top half of the table by a margin of six from Sassuolo, who occupy 11th, so Igor Tudor's first season in charge is set to conclude with his primary objective met.

Having taken the reins early in the season with Hellas in a state of disarray, Tudor's well-drilled side have now suffered just two losses from their last 10 Serie A fixtures - both of which were against teams then in contention for the title - and should surpass last year's finish of 10th.

Generally faring better on home soil this term, Verona now face back-to-back fixtures at the Bentegodi, before their campaign concludes with a trip to Lazio, who are likely to be seeking points for European qualification.

Given the impressive output of Barak, Caprari and star striker Giovanni Simeone this term, they will surely fancy their chances of springing a surprise or two, to sign off in style.

Hellas Verona Serie A form:
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • W

AC Milan Serie A form:
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

AC Milan form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W


Team News

Milan are almost at full strength as coach Stefano Pioli prepares for the final push: with Alessandro Florenzi back in the fold this week, only long-term absentee Simon Kjaer is definitely missing for the visitors.

Pioli has rotated Brahim Diaz and Franck Kessie as the most advanced midfielder in his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation, but it remains to be seen which one will be selected on Sunday.

While last week's matchwinner Rafael Leao (10 league goals) is almost certain to start, Olivier Giroud (nine) and the recently returned Zlatan Ibrahimovic (eight) are in a straight contest for the centre-forward role, with the former being favourite.

Meanwhile, Verona can boast an even more potent attack than their more illustrious rivals, as Antonin Barak, Gianluca Caprari and leading scorer Giovanni Simeone (16) have already netted 39 goals between them this season - 64% of the Gialloblu's league total.

In defence, Polish centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz returned to full training during the week, and should feature on the bench, so only reserve goalkeeper Ivor Pandur is expected to miss Milan's visit through injury.

Hellas Verona possible starting lineup:
Montipo; Ceccherini, Gunter, Casale; Faraoni, Ilic, Tameze, Lazovic; Barak, Caprari; Simeone

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kalulu, Tomori, Hernandez; Tonali, Bennacer; Messias, Kessie, Leao; Giroud


We say: Hellas Verona 1-2 AC Milan

With such a reliable front three, Verona should be fancied to break down even Milan's steadfast back four at some stage, but that may not prove enough to taste victory at the final whistle, given their visitors have lost only a single Serie A away game.

The Rossoneri have not been prolific of late, but having Ibrahimovic back on the bench offers an invaluable option to mix things up if the game remains deadlocked in the tense final stages.




Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a AC Milan win with a probability of 47.83%. A win for Hellas Verona has a probability of 28.08% and a draw has a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline is Hellas Verona 1-1 AC Milan with a probability of 11.28% and the second most likely scoreline is Hellas Verona 1-2 AC Milan with a probability of 9.45%.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data




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Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Inter Milan29244171145776
2AC Milan29195555332262
3Juventus29178444232159
4Bologna29159542251754
5Roma29156855352051
6Atalanta BCAtalanta28145951321947
7Napoli29129844331145
8Fiorentina2812794132943
9Lazio29134123633343
10Monza2911993236-442
11Torino29101182826241
12Genoa29810113136-534
13Lecce29610132645-1928
14Udinese29415102844-1627
15Hellas VeronaHellas Verona2968152639-1326
16CagliariCagliari2968152950-2126
17Empoli2967162243-2125
18FrosinoneFrosinone2966173760-2324
19SassuoloSassuolo2965183356-2323
20Salernitana2928192359-3614
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