SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Haverfordwest County | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Caernarfon Town | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Connah's Quay Nomads | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Pontypridd Town AFC | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Airbus UK Broughton | 4 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 41.37%. A win for Airbus UK Broughton had a probability of 34.09% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Airbus UK Broughton win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.42%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Caernarfon Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Airbus UK Broughton |
41.37% ( 0.56) | 24.54% ( -0.35) | 34.09% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 58.99% ( 1.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.12% ( 1.57) | 43.88% ( -1.58) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.73% ( 1.52) | 66.26% ( -1.53) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.72% ( 0.94) | 21.28% ( -0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.79% ( 1.44) | 54.2% ( -1.45) |
| Airbus UK Broughton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.93% ( 0.62) | 25.06% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.25% ( 0.85) | 59.74% ( -0.86) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Airbus UK Broughton |
| 2-1 @ 8.84% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.25% ( -0.33)2-0 @ 6.39% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 4.56% ( 0.16)3-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 1.76% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.63% Total : 41.37% | 1-1 @ 11.42% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.38)3-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.54% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 7.38% ( -0.38)0-2 @ 5.11% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.12)0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.65% Total : 34.09% |
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