Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 29.92% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 0-1 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.11%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
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