SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Women win with a probability of 49.81%. A win for Manchester United Women had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.37%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Manchester United Women win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal Women would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal Women | Draw | Manchester United Women |
49.81% ( -1.08) | 23.12% ( 0.58) | 27.07% ( 0.51) |
| Both teams to score 59.98% ( -1.6) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.15% ( -2.31) | 40.85% ( 2.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.77% ( -2.41) | 63.24% ( 2.41) |
| Arsenal Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.42% ( -1.23) | 16.58% ( 1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.63% ( -2.26) | 46.37% ( 2.26) |
| Manchester United Women Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.9% ( -0.84) | 28.1% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.23% ( -1.09) | 63.78% ( 1.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal Women | Draw | Manchester United Women |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.37% ( 0.53)2-0 @ 7.52% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 5.72% ( -0.25)3-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.63% ( -0.25)4-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.23)4-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.19)5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.36% Total : 49.81% | 1-1 @ 10.62% ( 0.43) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.15)0-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.48)3-3 @ 1.54% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.24% Total : 23.12% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 5.91% ( 0.48)0-2 @ 3.75% ( 0.22)1-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.56% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.75% Total : 27.07% |
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