Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Armenia win with a probability of 46.39%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Armenia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Iceland win was 0-1 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Armenia would win this match.