Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 68.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 8.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 1-0 with a probability of 22.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (17.8%) and 3-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.75%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.