Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iceland win with a probability of 50.14%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Liechtenstein had a probability of 24.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iceland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.56%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Liechtenstein win it was 0-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iceland would win this match.
