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World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round
Oct 12, 2021 at 11.14am UK
 
AN

Japan
2 - 1
Australia

Tanaka (8'), Behich (85' og.)
Morita (68')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Hrustic (70')
Behich (63'), Souttar (90+3')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 41.01%. A win for Japan had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.7%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Japan win was 2-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.

Result
JapanDrawAustralia
34.85%24.13%41.01%
Both teams to score 60.62%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.17%41.83%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.77%64.23%
Japan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.32%23.68%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.21%57.78%
Australia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.43%20.57%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
46.9%53.1%
Score Analysis
    Japan 34.85%
    Australia 41.01%
    Draw 24.13%
JapanDrawAustralia
2-1 @ 7.99%
1-0 @ 7.02%
2-0 @ 5.05%
3-1 @ 3.84%
3-2 @ 3.04%
3-0 @ 2.43%
4-1 @ 1.38%
4-2 @ 1.09%
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 34.85%
1-1 @ 11.09%
2-2 @ 6.32%
0-0 @ 4.87%
3-3 @ 1.6%
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 24.13%
1-2 @ 8.77%
0-1 @ 7.7%
0-2 @ 6.09%
1-3 @ 4.62%
2-3 @ 3.33%
0-3 @ 3.21%
1-4 @ 1.83%
2-4 @ 1.32%
0-4 @ 1.27%
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 41.01%

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