Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Australia win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for China had a probability of 34.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Australia win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.91%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest China win was 1-2 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Australia would win this match.