Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a North Macedonia win with a probability of 50.15%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Iceland had a probability of 24.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a North Macedonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.13%), while for a Iceland win it was 0-1 (7.86%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that North Macedonia would win this match.