Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mauritania win with a probability of 38.39%. A win for Zambia had a probability of 31.9% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mauritania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.58%) and 2-1 (7.55%). The likeliest Zambia win was 0-1 (11.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
