Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.

Result
Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
44.34%	27.16%	28.49%

Both teams to score 48.12%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.16%

56.84%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.23%

77.77%

Northern Ireland Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.5%

25.49%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.66%

60.34%

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.59%

35.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.83%

72.17%

Score Analysis

Northern Ireland 44.33%

Bulgaria 28.49%

Draw 27.16%

Northern Ireland	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 12.33% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 8.43% 3-1 @ 3.99% 3-0 @ 3.84% 3-2 @ 2.07% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.25% Total : 44.33%	1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 9.03% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.16%	0-1 @ 9.37% 1-2 @ 6.65% 0-2 @ 4.87% 1-3 @ 2.3% 0-3 @ 1.68% 2-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.05% Total : 28.49%