SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northern Ireland win with a probability of 44.34%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northern Ireland win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 44.34% | 27.16% | 28.49% |
| Both teams to score 48.12% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.16% | 56.84% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.23% | 77.77% |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.5% | 25.49% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.66% | 60.34% |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.59% | 35.41% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.83% | 72.17% |
| Score Analysis |
| Northern Ireland | Draw | Bulgaria |
| 1-0 @ 12.33% 2-1 @ 8.75% 2-0 @ 8.43% 3-1 @ 3.99% 3-0 @ 3.84% 3-2 @ 2.07% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-0 @ 1.31% Other @ 2.25% Total : 44.33% | 1-1 @ 12.8% 0-0 @ 9.03% 2-2 @ 4.54% Other @ 0.78% Total : 27.16% | 0-1 @ 9.37% 1-2 @ 6.65% 0-2 @ 4.87% 1-3 @ 2.3% 0-3 @ 1.68% 2-3 @ 1.57% Other @ 2.05% Total : 28.49% |
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