Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 57.05%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 17.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.32%) and 1-2 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 1-0 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Wales in this match.
