SM
| Current League B4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Wales | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Montenegro | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Iceland | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League B3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Austria | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 86.97%. A draw had a probability of 9.8% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 3.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (14.63%) and 1-0 (10.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.49%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (1.56%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Wales | Draw | Kazakhstan |
86.97% ( 1.29) | 9.75% ( -0.88) | 3.28% ( -0.42) |
| Both teams to score 32.56% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.04% ( 2) | 35.96% ( -2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.94% ( 2.17) | 58.06% ( -2.17) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.36% ( 0.64) | 5.64% ( -0.64) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 78.15% ( 1.81) | 21.85% ( -1.81) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 34.5% ( -0.66) | 65.5% ( 0.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 6.78% ( -0.28) | 93.21% ( 0.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Wales | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 2-0 @ 15.26% ( -0.33) 3-0 @ 14.63% ( 0.24)1-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.65)4-0 @ 10.52% ( 0.56)2-1 @ 6.46% ( -0.3)3-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.54)4-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.14)6-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.36)5-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 1.31% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.13)7-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.19)4-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 86.94% | 1-1 @ 4.49% ( -0.39) 0-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.38)2-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.2% Total : 9.75% | 0-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.77% Total : 3.28% |
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