SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Hungary | 8 | 9 | 18 |
| 2 | Serbia | 8 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 8 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 8 | -6 | 6 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 8 | -7 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wales win with a probability of 37.74%. A win for Montenegro had a probability of 33.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wales win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.66%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Montenegro win was 1-0 (11.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Wales would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Montenegro | Draw | Wales |
33.16% ( 1.06) | 29.1% ( -0.2) | 37.74% ( -0.87) |
| Both teams to score 44.41% ( 0.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.7% ( 0.79) | 62.3% ( -0.79) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.04% ( 0.57) | 81.96% ( -0.57) |
| Montenegro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.14% ( 1.19) | 34.86% ( -1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.41% ( 1.23) | 71.59% ( -1.23) |
| Wales Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.17% ( -0.13) | 31.83% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.74% ( -0.15) | 68.26% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Montenegro | Draw | Wales |
| 1-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 7.05% ( 0.22)2-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 2.48% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.19% Total : 33.16% | 1-1 @ 13.38% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 11.09% ( -0.33)2-2 @ 4.04% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.58% Total : 29.09% | 0-1 @ 12.7% ( -0.42) 1-2 @ 7.66% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 7.27% ( -0.27)1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.78% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.86% Total : 37.74% |
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