Despite their contrasting fortunes throughout this season, this match looks evenly-poised given how Boro have improved of late. We expect a thriller of a game, one which Sunderland may salvage a share of the spoils from during the closing stages.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Middlesbrough win with a probability of 42.03%. A win for Sunderland had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Middlesbrough win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.54%) and 0-2 (6.6%). The likeliest Sunderland win was 2-1 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Middlesbrough would win this match.
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