Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greuther Furth win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 36.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greuther Furth win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 0-1 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
0.16) 
-0.3) 
