Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 53.2%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 24.85% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.7%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (6.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
