Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 46.11%. A win for Erzgebirge Aue had a probability of 27.3% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Erzgebirge Aue win was 0-1 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
