Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for SV Darmstadt 98 had a probability of 35.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.52%) and 2-0 (6.21%). The likeliest SV Darmstadt 98 win was 1-2 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
