Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 41.3%. A win for SV Darmstadt 98 had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest SV Darmstadt 98 win was 0-1 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
1.33) 
-0.08) 
