Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 48.39%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 27.24% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.48%) and 2-0 (8.06%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 0-1 (6.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
-0.13) 
0.04) 
